ABOUT BUSINESS - 01.2009 - WARSAW

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ABOUT BUSINESS - 01.2009

A good anti-crisis program
Leszek Balcerowicz, the former Minister of Finance and once-director of the National Bank of Poland, praises the Polish government for its anti-crisis program. The government’s amendment to the budget plan for 2009 assumes that GDP growth will be 3.7%. Initially, it had been supposed that it would be 4.8%. Balcerowicz admitted that there is significant uncertainty in terms of the rate of future economic growth, which concerns not only Poland, but also the rest of the world. In his opinion, caution is advisable. Polish analysts also appreciate the government’s anti-crisis program, which is supposed to serve as a „parachute” for the Polish economy. 2009 will be a difficult year for Poland, however – Balcerowicz warns.

A drop in unemployment
The unemployment rate dropped in our country in October to 6.4%, down from 6.5% in September, according to Eurostat, the EU statistics office. That is lower than the average for the entire European Union (7.1%) and for the euro zone (7.7%). The data from Eurostat differs from the calculations done by the Polish Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS – Central Statistical Office), according to which unemployment in October amounted to 8.8%. GUS bases its data on information from employment offices, and Eurostat includes the so-called gray market.

A new car from Poland
Italian Fiat is considering the introduction of a new, inexpensive car brand. It is supposed to be produced in Poland, but it has not yet been stated where, exactly. The new car is expected to appear in 2010.

Poles slowly in favor of the euro
Poles are slowly becoming more convinced about the euro. According to a survey by CBOS (Centrum Badania Opinii Społecznej – Public Opinion Research Center), 47% of respondents support the introduction of the European currency, and 45% are against it. At the beginning of 2007, 44% were in favor of replacing the zloty with European currency. 46% of those surveyed were against it.

Roads built faster
In accordance with the announcements of the Polish government, expenditures on roads built with the European Union funds will increase from 10 billion zloty, as was previously planned, to 16.8 billion or even 21.4 billion. The increased tempo will be possible thanks to increased institutional and procedural efficiency, for instance, in the method of accounting for investments. Up to now, it was impossible to begin an investment until Brussels approved the project. Often it took 12 months to get a signature of approval. This year, that is supposed to change.

Less carbon dioxide
Poland is prepared to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 20% before 2020, declared the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, during the UN climate conference which took place last month in Poznań. The Polish Prime Minister stated that the activities of the government aim to reach agreements with other countries. Tusk also declared that in 2020, operations will begin at the first nuclear power plant in our country. Seventeen times more Poland will spend 16.8 billion zloty in 2009 as part of the EU funding, according to estimates by the Polish Ministry of Regional Development. That is nearly 17 times more than in 2008.

We know how to spend money
Poland used more than 90% of the structural funds from the European Union for 2004-2006, according to data from the European Commission. That amounts to 7.7 billion euro, distributed in subsidies for regional development, fishery, and social funds. On the other hand, Poland has used just half of the available 5.6 billion euro from the cohesion fund. We have until the end of 2010 to spend that.

The crisis is mild for Poland
The Polish consumer finance market is not afraid of the crisis. From the point of view of Poland, the global recession came at the right time. In our country, loans exceed deposits by only a few percent, whereas in the United States and in some western European countries the difference is significantly greater. That is why the world financial crisis affects us mildly, and the loan market can keep growing. Thanks to that, Poland will only experience slower economic growth; the consumer finance market is not in any danger.

State aid
Last year, the Polish state gave as much as 6.5 billion zloty in public aid. Grupa Polskich Kolei Państwowych (the Polish State Railway Group) received the largest share of support. Urząd Ochrony Konkurencji i Konsumentów (UOKiK – Office of Competition and Consumer Protection) admits that it is concerned about continuously high levels of aid for large companies. The value of aid for private enterprises is growing, however, which is a good sign – they were the recipients of 87.2% of the total amount granted by the government.

Information published at 18 January 2009