ABOUT BUSINESS - 07.2010 - WARSAW

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ABOUT BUSINESS - 07.2010

Poland Better Than Germany?
Because of the reluctance in introducing reforms and insufficient outlays on education, the German economy may by the year 2040 lose its position in Europe and lag behind the Polish economy which is so far rather weak, according to a study published in Brussels. The book entitled Time After the Crisis, written by Director of the prestigious Brussels Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Daniel Gros and Austrian journalist cooperating with the CEPS Sonja Sagmeister, observes that the economic growth index of Poland is already by 2 points higher than that of Germany. According to the book, in 20 years the economic situation in Poland will be better than in Germany. The new European Union member states from Eastern Europe have accelerated the process of making up, while Germany „has become old, sated and passive”. Even the crisis did not bring the Germans to radical reflections.

New Ferry Connections Between Poland and Sweden
The Swedish concern intends to strengthen the ferry line connecting Sweden and Poland. The company plans to spend over EUR 100 million on the investments in this area. They come as an answer to the growing trade turnover and increasing passenger movement between the two countries. The Swedes intend, among other things, to modernize the two passenger and car ferries: Stena Scandinavica and Stena Germanica. Yet, the names of the ferries will change before they start cruising between Gdynia and Karlskrona. These twin vessels, which were built in the Polish shipyards in Gdynia and Gdansk, take 2,500 people and almost 600 passenger cars aboard each. They will replace the vessels that cruise on this route now. Thanks to that the number of passengers on this route will double. The ferries of the Swedish concern take some 350,000 people, 65,000 passenger cars and almost 65,000 trucks aboard annually on cruises between Poland and Sweden.

Nord Stream
Nord Stream will not be buried in the northern part of the port in Świnoujście, said Jarosław Siergiej, the President of the Szczecin and Świnoujście Seaports Authority. It means that deep draught ships will not be allowed to use this fairway. President Siergiej met the representatives of Nord Stream in Berlin. He said that the visit was a qualified success. The pipeline will be moved slightly to the north, yet it will not change much. The President of the Seaport stressed that after the pipeline is installed, the depth will not be sufficient to allow deep draught vessels to use the fairway. Therefore, Jarosław Siergiej is planning to take some legal actions to force North Stream to bury the pipeline in the northern fairway. So far, the Russian and German consortium promised to think over the possibilities to change the location of the pipeline, yet they did not declare to apply for relocation with the appropriate authorities. Consequently, in the future big ships may have limited access to the port in Świnoujście. Yet, the representatives of Nord Stream confirmed that they would bury the pipeline in the so called western fairway.

Poland as a Gas Superpower?
American mining companies are becoming more and more interested in Poland because of the shale gas deposits located below land surface that can be exploited. Experts estimate that our country may have one of the largest deposits of the so called shale gas in Europe. It is situated at large depths reaching up to event 4,000 meters. Possibilities of its extraction and exploitation were discussed by Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski who in Washington met with representatives of the American Chevron concern. Experts assess that in the territory of Europe there may be even as many as 14 trillion cubic meters of gas in rocks buried deeply under the land surface, and as many as one-third of the deposit, i.e. 4 trillion cubic meters, may be situated in Poland. If it turned out to be true, Poland could suddenly cause quite a stir on the European energy market and become a power in this field. To compare, our present deposits of the natural gas are estimated at 98 billion cubic meters. Experts claim that the supplies will last for 27 years.

GDP at an Increase
In the last quarter of 2009, our economy increased in real terms by 3.1 percent as compared with the same period of the year 2008. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the seasonally adjusted GDP grew in this period by 2.8 percent in comparison with the last three months of 2008, whereas in comparison with the third quarter of 2009 – by 1.2 percent. The data are in compliance with the expectations of the analysts who estimated that in the fourth quarter our economy would grow by 3 percent in real terms. The driving force behind the increase was foreign demand.

A Positive Forecast for Poland
The European Commission’s economic forecast for Poland is positive – our economic growth this year is to reach the level of 2.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. It is much more than it was expected in autumn. Then, Brussels envisaged that the GDP growth would stand at 1.8 percent. The leader in revival times – is the title of the analysis of the European Commission dedicated to our country. The economic situation of Poland, better than expected, should be attributed to such factors as substantial growth in investments, partially financed from the EU funds, improvement in exports, internal demand and better situation on the labor market. The European Commission published only some data referring to large member states of the European Union. Among them, only Spain still has a negative result with a forecast decrease of the Gross Domestic Product by 0.6 percent. Germany, which has the largest economy in the EU, is to have a growth at the level of 1.2 percent of GDP, according to the experts” predictions. Brussels also published the data on inflation. In Poland it will be higher than it was expected and it will reach 2.3 percent. In autumn, the Commission anticipated that the level of inflation would be 1.9 percent.

Best in the World
Who is the best head of the finance ministry in the world? Not an American, not a Chinese, nor a German but… a Pole. At least in the opinion of a prestigious finance periodical which appreciated Jacek Rostowski for his calmness and „tough yet right decisions” that he took in the difficult crisis situation. The award for the best finance minister for 2009 was granted to Rostowski by the banking and finance monthly entitled „The Banker” from the group of business editions of „Financial Times”. This is the third mention awarded to the Polish finance minister for his policies in the time of crisis. Rostowski said that thanks to the government’s understanding the Polish economy has become an example that other countries can follow. ‘Cutting down on costs while the governments of other countries made them bigger, and then activities aimed at increasing tax related revenues marked the trends that other countries follow now”, stresses Rostowski. He is also appreciated for designing the schedule for Poland’s entering the European Monetary Union, maintaining the investors” trust and flexible credit line with the International Monetary Fund, which is a kind of insurance for the Polish economy in the time of market perturbations.

Information published at 30 June 2010